The Winter Market Recap and Spring Predictions

Gretchen Roethle January 24, 2026

Dear Community.

January is nearly behind us, and while inventory is only just beginning to pick up, I want to pause for a moment and talk about what’s been happening here—not nationally, not in headlines, but right in Berkeley. The broader real estate news cycle doesn’t always reflect our hyper-local reality, and the last three months in particular have given us something worth paying attention to. The attached graph highlights a striking pattern in North Berkeley that raises an important question: Are we quietly entering a very strong seller’s market as we head into 2026?

This fall, we saw a meaningful jump in the higher-end North Berkeley market, with multiple homes that were anticipated to trade in the mid-to-high $2M range ultimately selling well north of $3M. In total, 12 detached homes closed between October 2025 and late January 2026 at prices ranging from $3,000,000 to $3,500,000, with a median sale price of approximately $3.14M and an average just over $3.17M . Even more notable: many of these homes were initially priced significantly lower and sold quickly, often within two to three weeks, signaling not just demand, but urgency.

So what’s driving this? It’s hard to ignore the possibility that we’re seeing the early effects of AI-driven wealth entering the market, particularly from buyers tied to tech, infrastructure, and adjacent industries. At the same time, San Francisco has shown renewed strength and confidence at higher price points, and historically, when SF heats up, the East Bay—especially areas like North Berkeley—follows closely behind. Add limited inventory, lifestyle-driven moves, and buyers prioritizing space, schools, and long-term value, and the momentum starts to make sense.

Is this a one-season anomaly, or the leading edge of a broader shift? It’s too early to say definitively—but it is a data point worth watching closely. If you’re a homeowner curious about what this might mean for your property, or simply want to understand how these trends could shape the Berkeley market in 2026, I’m always happy to talk it through. As always, my goal is to keep you informed, grounded in real numbers, and a step ahead of what’s coming next.

Now, let's see how the market performed over the last 3 months👇