Market Trends & Thanksgiving Cheers: Your November Update
Gretchen RoethleNovember 26, 2025
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Gratitude, Growth, and What’s Coming in Our Market
As we head into Thanksgiving, I’ve been reflecting on how much gratitude I have for this community—my clients, my friends, the people who trust me to guide them through some of their biggest life decisions. The East Bay has always been special, but this year in particular, I’ve felt a deeper sense of appreciation for the way our neighborhoods show up with resilience, creativity, and heart. And in the middle of that warmth, we’re watching the early sparks of what looks like the next major market cycle beginning to take shape.
Let’s start with what’s right in front of us: Berkeley quietly blew past expectations this fall. In the last 30 days alone, we saw four to five homes sell above $3 million, several of them at record-breaking numbers. That wasn’t on anyone’s bingo card for Q4—especially not in a national landscape where media headlines would have you believe homebuyers everywhere are huddled under blankets waiting for better rates. Instead, our local market flexed its strength again, proving that high-quality, well-located properties here continue to defy the national narrative.
Meanwhile, across the Bay, San Francisco is having a renaissance of its own. Record sale prices, renewed energy in neighborhoods, tech workers actually returning, and a cultural vibrancy that feels… well, alive again. When SF heats up, history tells us the East Bay follows—quickly. As prices in the city rise, buyers inevitably expand their search. They discover the sunlight in Berkeley, the food in Oakland, the space in the hills, the schools, the community, the ease. It’s a familiar rhythm, and it’s already beginning.
Zooming out: mortgage rates are still floating in the mid-6s to low-7s depending on the product, and while that’s higher than what everyone got a taste of in 2020–2021, they’ve stabilized enough that buyers who were sidelined are stepping back in. National inventory remains historically low—the US has roughly 35–40% fewer homes for sale than a balanced market requires—and home prices across the country continue to inch upward year-over-year. In other words: demand hasn’t gone anywhere. It’s just waiting for the right moment.
Which brings me to 2026. My long-range read? If the AI boom continues to expand without a dramatic correction, the Bay Area is poised for another major appreciation cycle—possibly one of the fastest we’ve seen in a decade. Innovation drives jobs; jobs drive migration; migration drives competition; competition drives home prices. We are already seeing the early indicators in SF, and the East Bay traditionally trails about 12–18 months behind. That puts us into the 2026 window for rapid appreciation—especially in neighborhoods like Berkeley, Rockridge, Elmwood, North Berkeley, and the hills.
So as we all step into this season of gratitude, know this: I’m grateful for you. I’m grateful for the trust you place in Salt & Pine. And I’m committed—as always—to being your guide, your strategist, and your steady voice through whatever the market does next. If you’re thinking about buying, selling, remodeling, or just want a pulse check on your home’s value headed into the new year, I’d love to connect for a complimentary review. It’s the perfect time to be intentional about your long-term strategy.
Wishing you a warm, joyful, and restorative Thanksgiving.
With gratitude,
Gretchen & the Salt & Pine Team
What’s Hot in the Market This November
🔮 NAR Forecast: Home Sales Expected to Jump 14% in 2026
The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) projects a strong rebound in the housing market, with existing-home sales expected to rise by 14% in 2026.
This growth is driven by several key factors: lower mortgage rates, forecasted to average around 6%, a solid job market, and greater overall economic stability.
Home prices are also expected to continue climbing, with a projected 4% increase, supported by steady demand and limited inventory.
However, first-time buyers are still facing significant challenges. Their share of the market has dropped to a historic low of 21%, and the median age of a first-time buyer has risen to 40.
One positive constant: consumers continue to rely heavily on real estate professionals. 88% of buyers and 91% of sellers used an agent or broker in their most recent transaction.
Overall, NAR anticipates a more active, healthier housing market in 2026, bringing new opportunities for buyers, sellers, and industry professionals alike.
This week the median list price for Alameda County, CA is $999,974 with the market action index hovering around 51. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 50. Inventory has decreased to 988.
This week the median list price for Contra Costa County, CA is $825,000 with the market action index hovering around 44. This is an increase over last month's market action index of 43. Inventory has decreased to 1,240.
The Big Story
Housing payments have become slightly more affordable as interest rates tick down
Median monthly P&I payments are on the decline, as one might expect when interest rates are falling. This, of course, is great for new buyers that are in the market for a home. If we see an influx of new buyers, there is the possibility that we might see a less stagnant market when the spring time rush comes in early 2026. Unfortunately though, interest rates are still much too high for many people who locked in rates in the 2-3% range to justify moving to a new home and taking on a considerably higher mortgage payment each month. We likely won’t see these homes/homeowners enter the market until rates come down substantially more than they already have.
Inventories remain strong despite an increase in transaction volume
Inventories have remained incredibly strong throughout this year, as inventory growth has consistently outstripped existing home sale growth. This past month, we saw inventories grow by 13.97% on a year-over-year basis, while there were only 6.01% more existing homes sold. It’ll be interesting to see where inventories go over the course of the winter, since they usually decline meaningfully.
Quick Take:
Housing is slowly becoming more affordable, as interest rates slowly creep down over time.
As of the time this is written, the average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.22%, representing a drastic decline from earlier this year.
Inventory levels are holding steady, despite slight increases in transaction volume.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, we’re looking at a 65% chance that the Fed cuts rates by another quarter point in their December meeting.
The Local Lowdown
Quick Take:
Median sale prices for condos continue to lag where they were last year.
Inventories are surprisingly static on a year-over-year basis
Listings are spending a lot more time on the market than they were last year.
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