Fall into Real Estate: Your October Newsletter

Gretchen Roethle October 31, 2025

What’s Hot in the Market This October

Hi friends,

If you’ve been following the headlines lately, you’ve probably seen the big news: the Fed has started lowering interest rates. That’s good news for buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines and for sellers who’ve been waiting for buyers to come back. But before we all pop the champagne, let’s remember — this is real estate, and the story in the East Bay is never quite like anywhere else.

What I’m seeing on the ground right now is a market full of contradictions. Some homes are flying off the shelves with multiple offers and others, just as lovely, are sitting longer than expected. The only consistency? Inconsistency. We have strong, competitive weeks where everything feels hot again… and then the following week feels softer, like everyone collectively decided to take a nap. It’s harder to predict, but it’s not without opportunity.

Here in the East Bay, we continue to have a deep pool of qualified buyers and limited inventory in most neighborhoods. The national market might be cooling, but ours remains remarkably resilient. People still want to live here — for the weather, the architecture, the culture, the access to nature, and the soul of this place. That doesn’t change with the Fed’s rate policy.

This is why working with an expert team like Salt & Pine matters more than ever. We know how to read these shifts, navigate uncertainty, and help our clients make smart, strategic moves — whether you’re buying, selling, or both. The market might feel unpredictable, but that’s where experience, creativity, and deep local knowledge make all the difference.

So if you’ve been wondering whether it’s time to make a move, let’s talk. The landscape is shifting, and with the right guidance, you can move with it — not against it.

Warmly,

Gretchen

Salt & Pine Real Estate Founder

Market Numbers

Alameda County, CA

This week, the median list price for Alameda County, CA, is $1,068,880, with the market action index hovering around 50. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 50. Inventory has held steady at or around 1,237.

Contra Costa County, CA

This week the median list price for Contra Costa County, CA, is $849,000, with the market action index hovering around 43. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 43. Inventory has decreased to 1,435.

The Big Story

Mortgage rates have begun to decline thanks to the Fed

Recently, the Fed came out and announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, but that was not the most exciting news that they announced. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that we should expect two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, signalling that we are in the beginning innings of a Fed cutting cycle. This, of course, is huge news for the housing market. Despite the fact that many markets have retained much of their post-pandemic gains in value, the housing market has been largely stagnant, with inventories building as home buyers decide to sit on the sidelines and wait.

Inventories continue to build nationwide

The national inventory is quite a bit higher than last year, with 11.68% more homes listed on the market. This really underscores the fact that buyers have decided mainly to throw in the towel and wait for a better chance to purchase a home. When you combine this with the fact that there were 4.88% more new homes hitting the market than this time last year, you have a recipe for growing inventory!

Quick Take:

Affordability remains an issue nationwide, as monthly P&I payments ticked up by 2.90% year-over-year.
Mortgage rates are finally starting to decline, as we enter a rate-cutting cycle.
Inventories are still growing at a faster rate than existing home sales.
Quick observation about Macroeconomics/The Broader Market.

The Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Single-family home median sale prices declined slightly on a year-over-year basis.
Inventories remain at a level that’s slightly higher than this time last year.
Listings are spending a lot more time on the market than they were last year, with single-family listings spending more than 20% longer on the market.

Your guide to the East Bay’s Active Listings this month

🏦 The Fed cuts rates again in October

The Federal Reserve just trimmed rates by 0.25%, bringing them down to 3.75%–4.00%, the lowest since 2022. It’s a clear signal: the Fed’s shifting its focus from fighting inflation to keeping the economy steady and jobs secure.

Here’s the quick take:

💳 Borrowing: Slight relief for variable-rate loans, though the impact will be modest.

💰 Savings: Banks are likely to lower yields on savings accounts and CDs.

🏡 Housing: Mortgage rates have eased slightly — a potential window for refinancing.

📈 Investments: Markets welcomed the cut, but analysts warn of underlying economic weakness.

In short, the Fed’s latest rate cut marks a turn toward a more supportive monetary stance, though consumers and investors should expect gradual rather than dramatic effects.

Local Happenings

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