Pumpkin among fallen autumn leaves in warm golden light.

October East Bay Real Estate Newsletter & Market Update

Gretchen Roethle October 31, 2025

What’s Hot in the Market This October

Hi friends,
 
If you’ve been following the headlines lately, you’ve probably seen the big news: the Fed has started lowering interest rates. That’s good news for buyers who’ve been waiting on the sidelines and for sellers who’ve been waiting for buyers to come back. But before we all pop the champagne, let’s remember — this is real estate, and the story in the East Bay is never quite like anywhere else.
 
What I’m seeing on the ground right now is a market full of contradictions. Some homes are flying off the shelves with multiple offers and others, just as lovely, are sitting longer than expected. The only consistency? Inconsistency. We have strong, competitive weeks where everything feels hot again… and then the following week feels softer, like everyone collectively decided to take a nap. It’s harder to predict, but it’s not without opportunity.
 
Here in the East Bay, we continue to have a deep pool of qualified buyers and limited inventory in most neighborhoods. The national market might be cooling, but ours remains remarkably resilient. People still want to live here — for the weather, the architecture, the culture, the access to nature, and the soul of this place. That doesn’t change with the Fed’s rate policy.
 
This is why working with an expert team like Salt & Pine matters more than ever. We know how to read these shifts, navigate uncertainty, and help our clients make smart, strategic moves — whether you’re buying, selling, or both. The market might feel unpredictable, but that’s where experience, creativity, and deep local knowledge make all the difference.
 
So if you’ve been wondering whether it’s time to make a move, let’s talk. The landscape is shifting, and with the right guidance, you can move with it — not against it.
 
Warmly,
Gretchen
Salt & Pine Real Estate Founder
 
Market Numbers
Real estate market gauge at 50, between buyer's and seller's market, with last month and today indicators.
This week, the median list price for Alameda County, CA, is $1,068,880, with the market action index hovering around 50. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 50. Inventory has held steady at or around 1,237.
 
This week the median list price for Contra Costa County, CA, is $849,000, with the market action index hovering around 43. This is about the same as last month's market action index of 43. Inventory has decreased to 1,435.
 

The Big Story
Chart comparing monthly median home sales prices and 30-year mortgage rates, August 2024 to August 2025.
 
Mortgage rates have begun to decline thanks to the Fed
 
Recently, the Fed came out and announced a quarter-point cut to the federal funds rate, but that was not the most exciting news that they announced. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that we should expect two more quarter-point cuts before the end of the year, signalling that we are in the beginning innings of a Fed cutting cycle. This, of course, is huge news for the housing market. Despite the fact that many markets have retained much of their post-pandemic gains in value, the housing market has been largely stagnant, with inventories building as home buyers decide to sit on the sidelines and wait.
 
Chart of existing home sales and inventory from August 2024 to August 2025.
 
Inventories continue to build nationwide
 
The national inventory is quite a bit higher than last year, with 11.68% more homes listed on the market. This really underscores the fact that buyers have decided mainly to throw in the towel and wait for a better chance to purchase a home. When you combine this with the fact that there were 4.88% more new homes hitting the market than this time last year, you have a recipe for growing inventory!
 
Quick Take:
  • Affordability remains an issue nationwide, as monthly P&I payments ticked up by 2.90% year-over-year.
  • Mortgage rates are finally starting to decline, as we enter a rate-cutting cycle.
  • Inventories are still growing at a faster rate than existing home sales.
  • Quick observation about Macroeconomics/The Broader Market.

 

The Local Lowdown
 
Quick Take:
  • Single-family home median sale prices declined slightly on a year-over-year basis.
  • Inventories remain at a level that’s slightly higher than this time last year.
  • Listings are spending a lot more time on the market than they were last year, with single-family listings spending more than 20% longer on the market.

Chart comparing year-over-year single-family home price changes in Alameda and Contra Costa, October 2024–September 2025.

Line chart comparing monthly median single-family home prices in Alameda and Contra Costa from September 2022 to September 2025.

Line chart comparing monthly supply for single-family homes in Alameda and Contra Costa, September 2023–September 2025.

Chart of East Bay single-family home listings from September 2023 to September 2025, showing new, sold, and for-sale listings.

 

Your guide to the East Bay’s Active Listings this month

Berkeley October 2025 market update: 85 active homes, 37 average days on market, and $1,299,000 median list price. Oakland, October 2025: 400 active homes, 73 average days on market, $775,000 median list price.

Piedmont October 2025 market update: 20 active homes, 87 average days on market, and a $2,947,000 median list price. El Cerrito October 2025 market update: 20 active homes, 45 average days on market, and $997,000 median list price.

 

🏦 The Fed cuts rates again in October

The Federal Reserve just trimmed rates by 0.25%, bringing them down to 3.75%–4.00%, the lowest since 2022. It’s a clear signal: the Fed’s shifting its focus from fighting inflation to keeping the economy steady and jobs secure.
 
Here’s the quick take:
 
💳 Borrowing: Slight relief for variable-rate loans, though the impact will be modest.
 
💰 Savings: Banks are likely to lower yields on savings accounts and CDs.
 
🏡 Housing: Mortgage rates have eased slightly — a potential window for refinancing.
 
📈 Investments: Markets welcomed the cut, but analysts warn of underlying economic weakness.
 
In short, the Fed’s latest rate cut marks a turn toward a more supportive monetary stance, though consumers and investors should expect gradual rather than dramatic effects.
 
 
FEATURED PROPERTIES
 
Available
 
864 Arlington Ave, Oakland, CA
 
Gray two-story home with a white garage and exterior staircase, photographed at dusk.
Welcome to The Retreat House, a beautifully redesigned oasis where modern comfort meets timeless style. Every detail, from the feeling of spaciousness and light to the elegant modern finishes, makes this home as functional as it is inspiring. And with its prime location, just minutes from Oakland's shopping, transportation, and finest restaurants, The Retreat House is the perfect combination of serenity.
 
Pending
 
3961 Magee Ave, Oakland, CA
 
Blue-gray house with white-railed front stairs, a yellow lower-level door, and flowers beside the entrance.
 
Welcome to this utterly adorable bungalow that’s practically bursting with personality.
Nestled in a quiet, storybook corner of Redwood Heights, this home is a true charm bomb; whimsical, warm & full of delightful surprises. Inside you’ll find hardwood floors, a cozy living room with a blue-tiled gas fireplace, and a cheerful eat-in kitchen with shaker cabinets, a brand new fridge and dishwasher, penny-round blue tile backsplash, and streams of natural light.
 
Coming Soon
 
3643 Brook St, Lafayette, CA
 
White multi-level house with a terracotta tile roof, ornate balconies, and a brick-paved driveway.
 
 
 
 
 

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